Angela Merkel gives a French election tip

I notice that the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has changed her tune about actively backing Nicolas Sarkozy in the contest for the French presidency. She is now offering to meet with the socialist candidate Francois Holland as it becomes more likely that Sarkozy is on the way to being rejected.
While recent opinion polls show that President Sarkozy now has a narrow lead when first round voting intentions are measured, he still lags well behind after minor candidates are eliminated. And as the figures from TNS Sofres show, the latest drop in first round support for Hollande is less than the increase shown for Jean Luc Melanchon whose party is further to the left than the mainstream socialists.

(Click graphs to enlarge)

I have already invested $64.50 on Sarkozy not to win (see the details of this and other current wagers in the portfolio here) and I recommend going again at the Intrade price this morning of 60.5%

Value in Campbell Newman

Playing the man just isn't working for Queensland Labor. This morning's Galaxy poll in the Brisbane Sunday Mail suggests, as the paper puts it, Labor Faces Disaster.

With six days to go I cannot imagine how Anna Bligh can rescue things from here.
The $1.06 the bookies are offering about the Liberal National Party are probably generous but there is far better value in Sportingbet's $1.45 about Campbell Newman winning the seat of Ashgrove. The anti-Labor swing is shaping up as so large that even an excellent campaign by the sitting Labor member will not be enough.
Saturday's Newspoll looks pretty accurate to me.

On the basis of a 52 to 48 split in the two party preferred vote, anything better than $1.33 about Campbell Newman is value.
I have taken the $1.45 - see the current portfolio of this and other wagers - including the $40 I optimistically put on Labor some months back to actually win the election! Silly me.

A little more Santorum

Candidate Rick Santorum continues to surprise. Wins, albeit narrow ones, in Alabama and Mississippi today keep the Republican race alive.
Yet the market does not seem to really believe it and he's still only given a 6.8% chance on Intrade with Mitt Romney assessed at 85%. The whole market comes in at less than 100% which presents a rare opportunity
That looks value enough to risk another $6.80 on Santorum to go with my earlier investment of $10 at a bookies price of $27 (3.7%).
I already have $50 on Romney at $2 (50%) so my biggest risk on this event is probably someone completely new emerging from a hung convention. Hence the decision to have $1.50 on Jeb Bush at 1.5% as my outsider insurance policy.

Sarkozy narrows the gap a little in French presidential race

A poll for Europe 1 and Paris Match published today has France's President Nicolas Sarkozy gaining some ground in his reelection bid but still trailing Socialist candidate Francois Hollande in the likely second round of voting after the elimination of other candidates.

The Crikey French Election Indicator, based on prices at the prediction markets, assesses the chances at:

Earlier this year the Owl backed Sarkozy not to win at 35.5% so there is currently a theoretical profit of 13 points or so..

Santorum scores easy win at Kansas caucuses | Reuters

The result went as expected by the Indicator.

Santorum scores easy win at Kansas caucuses | Reuters: "Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum swept the Kansas caucuses on Saturday with 51 percent of the vote, giving him a boost going into crucial primary votes in the South next week.

The conservative former senator from Pennsylvania was well ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who was at 21 percent, and former House of Representative Speaker Newt Gingrich at 14 percent.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul had 12 percent.

Santorum now has some bragging rights before the more contested races next week in Alabama and Mississippi, where victories could solidify his status as the conservative alternative to front-runner Romney."

'via Blog this'

The next batch of Republican selections

The Crikey Republican Election Indicators are pointing to another set of mixed results in the forthcoming primaries and caucuses.

The Whitehall efficiency drive that increased costs - Telegraph

The Whitehall efficiency drive that increased costs - Telegraph: "Whitehall departments have spent £1.4 billion in an attempt to save £159  million by sharing “back-office’’ functions such as personnel and procurement.
Private sector firms typically cut a fifth off their annual spend within five years using similar methods, the National Audit Office said.
But a combination of poor coordination, over-expensive IT systems, weak or non-existent sanctions and an insistence on highly-tailored services saw public sector costs rise instead."

'via Blog this'