Monday, February 27, 2012

This week's Republican contests

Australia’s Labor is not the only political party that will be struggling to find a fresh face to become its leader as the year goes on. The US Republicans appear to have the same problem. At the end of the first two months of the selection process for a presidential candidate there is not yet a clear cut leader.
Reservations exist within the Republican ranks about all four of those currently in the race. As measured by the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, President Barack Obama has clear leads in hypothetical contests with Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul. Candidate Rick Santorum is given a narrow lead but his social conservatism has not yet been exposed to the kind of criticism that Democrats would surely mount. Already there is talk of none of the four obtaining a majority of votes before the nominating convention which would leave the way open for the selection of someone else.
Perhaps the next round of primaries and caucuses will provide a clearer guide. Later today there will be polls in Arizona and Michigan with the Crikey Republican Election Indicators predicting the following:

Because it is Romney's home state - and if you cannot win at home you might as well retire from the contest - I have ventured $68.70 on Romney to win in Michigan for a potential win of $31.30.

Friday, February 10, 2012

Takng the odds on about Romney

I know I've expressed some reservations about Mitt Romney but if the man deserves to be an 80% chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination then he would surely have to get the majority support from the Maine state caucus.
The north east is meant to be his strong area so I recommend taking the 69.7% available on Intrade.

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

A Republican race again

Contests in three states and three victories for Rick Santorum. There is a fair dinkum race again for the Republican presidential nomination.

At least I didn't fall in to taking the short prices on offer in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado about Mitt Romney winning. I ended up following my own advice from 31 January when I drew attention to the national surveys of the opinion pollsters that had him second to Newt Gingrich and not all that far in front of candidate Santorum. I wrote: "The lack of enthusiasm for Romney makes me hesitate about taking the short prices on offer in these upcoming events"

Having reached the conclusion that the modest investment on Santorum back at the end of December at $27 (3.7% in Intrade terms) was money wasted I am now in the position where I can make a profit! He's 12.1% tonight.
 

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

The Bank Board beats me

You win some and you lose some. Today the Reserve Bank Board beat me by keeping interest rates unchanged.
Just a reminder that 71% chances don't win 100% of the time.
That's the way of it and they'll go round again on the first Tuesday of next month.
The result has brought the overall returns back to a more realistic level.
See the details here.


Monday, February 6, 2012

Friday, February 3, 2012

Time to back the Democrats for the US presidential election

At the recent rate of job creation in the United States it will be 2019 or so before the unemployment rate in the United States is back to where it was before the international financial crisis but at least the latest figures suggest that things are getting better rather than worse. Which has to be good news for the re-election chances of Barack Obama.
Good enough for me to recommend taking the current offerings at Intrade
The best offering by the British bookies is $1.67 about the Democrats which is equivalent to 59.9% on Intrade where there was a little 56.5% available when I last looked and a reasonable quantity at 57.0%