Justin Welby: Those who bet on me should donate winnings

BBC News - Justin Welby: Those who bet on me should donate winnings: "The next Archbishop of Canterbury has suggested people who made money by correctly betting on his appointment should donate their winnings to parish churches.

The Rt Rev Justin Welby made the call on the social networking site, Twitter.

Ladbrokes, which suspended betting after a flurry of bets placed on Bishop Welby's name, has now said it will donate £1,000 to Canterbury Cathedral.

The bishop was named as the next head of the Church of England on Friday."



'via Blog this'

When the bookies didn’t have a prayer - Telegraph

When the bookies didn’t have a prayer - Telegraph: "'And, lo, the Son of Man did again walk upon the earth, as it was foretold. And on the first day after He was risen, He did go to the temple of chance, and said unto them, 'Verily, I ask of you this. Can I have a monkey on Justin Welby for the Canterbury Stakes at 13-8?’ ” (Pseudo-Apocrypha 2:12-13)."



'via Blog this'

When it comes to the punt is nothing sacred?

The British bookies have stopped betting on who will be the next Archbishop of Canterbury after a solid plunge on one candidate led them to conclude they were becoming victims of insider trading.

The BBC reports that Ladbrokes closed betting after reporting a "very significant move" in favour of the current Bishop of Durham, Justin Welby. William Hill followed suit saying it had cut the odds on Bishop Welby three times in an hour.

A panel has been considering who will replace Rowan Williams for months with the choice currently before the Crown Nominations Commission.

Before the flurry of betting activity Bishop Welby was the 13/8 second favourite.When the bookies called enough he was an odds on 4/6.

A modest 40% return for the year

A modest little earn on the US Presidential election has more than compensated for getting wrong the likely economic conditions at the end of the year in the United States.

After a year of operation, the portfolio is now showing a total profit of $384.80 on its $1000 bank. Not sensational but I've been taking a very prudent approach and the outstanding wagers on Australian politics must show an eventual profit of $20 (and maybe a little more) whatever happens. Let's call the total return $400. That's certainly better than my partner's superannuation fund has been doing.
Of the other outstanding bets, Bashad-al-Assad still being president of Syria at the end of the year has moved in the right direction. I took the 54.3% some months ago that he would not be removed and it is in to 19% tonight.
The $100 on Labour at $2.26 to be the biggest party after the next British election is looking okay as well. The latest Betfair quote is $1.86.
Full details of present and past bets are HERE.

Money for nothing

Here's the item I wrote for the crikey.com.au website (the one that pays to keep me eating) this morning:

A cup day bet that cannot lose. It is a punter’s dream bet — back all the runners and win whatever wins. And as I write this at 11.30am on Melbourne Cup Day you can still guarantee yourself a profit on the US presidential election. All you need is an account with Betfair in Australia and Intrade in Ireland and you can wager on both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and win. Invest $91.40 and you’ll get back $100.
Here’s a summary of the markets on the three betting exchanges I combine to create the Crikey Presidential Indicator:

When the percentage chances add up to less than 100 you can back both runners and win and by combining Intrade and Betfair prices that’s exactly the case. So go to it. Being a sporting fellow I’ll leave the profit to my readers.
And a note for those not skilled in these gambling ways you will find that Betfair provides information as a price like in a tote dividend. To convert it to a percentage divide 1 by the price (eg. this morning you could back Romney on Betfair at $4.40 - 1/4.40 = 22.7).
The verdict of the Crikey Indicator. There’s no doubt in my mind that this wonderful arbitrage opportunity comes about because of a weird desire among Republicans to have their man Romney appear as a winner. The publication by Real Clear Politics of the latest Intrade prices showing Obama as a clear favourite clearly annoyed some people with money to spare. For what was a small outlay compared with the $6 billion being spent on this US election campaign they kept the Obama advantage from seeming too great.
On the other exchanges manipulation is not as easy. The Betfair market is used by the world’s major bookmakers as well as ordinary punters and thus a much greater outlay would be needed to affect it. And the Iowa Electronic Market limits the amounts that any individual participant can play with. More importantly neither of these two has its prices published by Real Clear Politics.
And so to the final indicator before tonight’s voting.

Even after giving the Intrade market a one third weighting it shows Obama as the likely winner.

 Since then the markets have changed slightly. Intrade has moved from 68.7% to 70% for Obama but Romney has gone from $4.40 to $4.70. The guaranteed profit has increased. Hence two investments that use up my available cash:

• $280 on Obama to win at 70% on Intrade for a potential return of $400
• $77 on Romney at $4.70 on Betfair for a potential return of $361.90

Only a small return on an outlay of $355 but criminal not to take it when there is no risk at all. A $45 profit if Obama wins and a profit of $6.90 if Romney does.