Sunday, April 21, 2013

Backing Tony Abbott to last until 14 September

It's better than bank interest that $1.09 being offered on Tony Abbott leading the Liberal Party on the next Australian election day. The only real risk is death or incapacity before 14 September so having made a modest investment to win $18 I hope he doesn't fall off his bike.
Details of all the political speculator's investments are on the Portfolio page.
The profit to date is $457.50 on a $1000 bank.

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Going for the long shot in Western Australia

I am believer in the underdog when it comes to elections. When governments are regarded s certainties oppositions regularly do much better than expected.
Hence the investment of 4 units on Labor to win in the Western Australian state election this weekend at a price of $26.
If nothing else it will help me fill in time until the English football coverage begins in the early hours of Sunday morning.
And it can't do much damage to the betting account balance which is showing a modest profit as you can see HERE.

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Lib-Dems win - another modest earn

The Eastleigh by-election went the way the market suggested it would resulting in a modest $31 profit for the political speculator.

The record so far:
Total outlay on concluded events $1,942.6 for winnings of $461.5
Current bets outstanding total $804 leaving a cash balance available of $657.50
Full details of all bets are on the portfolio page.

Eastleigh - Backing the Lib-Dems

I'm betting that the attack on the Conservatives from the anti-Europe flank of UKIP will prove a bigger influence on the by-election today for the House of Commons seat of Eastleigh than the personal relations problems of a pair of Liberal Democrats.
100 units invested on the Lib-Dems at an average of 1.31
Eastleigh - Winner bet | UK Politics odds | betfair.com:

'via Blog this'

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Backing UK Labour again

Today's UK opinion polls confirm the dismal prospect confronting the Conservative-Liberal Democrat government.

With the coalition refusing to change its policy of fiscal austerity I can not imagine the circumstances under which they could win the next election.
I have once again backed Labour to be the party with the most members after the next election.

100 Labour at 1.66

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Some form on the early Papal favourite

Pope's successor: Ghana prays for Peter Turkson the miner's son to reach marbled halls - Telegraph:

"Cardinal Peter Turkson, born in a two-room shack 170 miles from Ghana's capital, is currently the bookmakers' favourite to become the next pope. If selected, it would make him the first African pope in modern times. And it is something that his family and friends in Nsuta-Wassa, a small mining settlement set amid rolling hills and lush forest in western Ghana, are struggling to believe.
"It is quite incredible that someone from here could become pope," said Dunhill Pawosey, 62, a life-long friend of Cardinal Turkson. "But we have total faith in him, and know he will do an excellent job. It is very exciting for us all.""

'via Blog this'

Best current price 4.33 at Stan James

Friday, February 15, 2013

Gillard drifts back to even money to remain Labor leader

The first weeks of this current parliamentary session have frightened the punters when it comes to Julia Gillard. She started the year rated an 80% chance of remaining the Labor Leader until the election. On Betfair this afternoon she was back out to $2 - a 50% chance.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

All over red rover - backing the Coalition

I have been hesitating for months to put my money where my words are. For over a year now I have thought this next Australian federal election is as good as over and that Labor will be beaten but have not risked my own hard earned. No longer. The time has come to take the $1.21 on offer at Betfair about the Coalition.
$200 invested to potentially win $42.
The major risk I can see is that the Labor Caucus realises the futility of its position and replaces Julia Gillard with Kevin Rudd. As insurance against that I'll take $14 on the $15.0 about Rudd becoming the next Prime Minister. That will save my $200 stake.
Details of all my current political bets are at My portfolio

Monday, January 28, 2013

It started with a kiss

It started with a kiss from a new Australian for the Prime Minister.
And from his wife for the Opposition Leader.

The babies will surely follow as an election year gets off and smooching - with the markets saying Tony Abbott is more likely than Julia Gillard to be doing the kissing when election day ends.
Here's the latest probability indicator I produce for the Crikey website:

At the moment I am not attracted to have a bet. My inclination is to favour the Coalition but the market in the early days of this year has moved slightly in Labor's direction and over the long haul I know that the the market beats me.

Thursday, January 3, 2013

The dictator brings a profit

Assad survived as President of Syria until the start of 2013 so another modest little win for the speculator.
Our $1000 bank has now grown to $1430.50 of which $940.50 is available for new investments.